The trustees believe the US stock markets are ready to bounce, possibly quite high to S&P500 1280, over 100 points up form here. The risk profile is good for some speculation. When possible the trustees prefer to get paid up front and carry the risk, hence they have sold put options on the SPY at price points they believe the market will be considerable above at some point in the next five weeks. As options are time wasting even if the market goes down from the current 1176, trustees have 20 points of downside safety and with prepared loss of 4k more downside can be accepted. All advisors including Peter Foley by SMS from Sweden point to a bounce as markets are oversold.
Position was sized in to over several days and is now full allocation. As such it warrants daily monitoring. Trustees note that they DST as trading in US finishes and a more acceptable 8am rather that 6.00pm. Trustees prefer to speculate in US at end of session rather than start, as this provides ability and self control of placing limit orders more aggressively knowing that if not hit can reassess that trading day.
Friday, October 14, 2005
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
Keep your own cofidence
As I’ve said before Talking about your trades while still in them changes your behaviour. So here I am on dangerous ground talking about Telstra. I have bought at least 2/3 in to Telstra, and have just bought more at 4.30. I feel tricked by the government and Telstra, al my assumptions were based on information they both knew to be wrong. Although I have never joined a class action, despite being invited to do so dozens of times, this one really pisses me of. I should have applied that other great rule. If it looks to good to be true then it probably is just that. I’ll buy more if the share drops under 4.10-4.00 still cum dividend.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
Don't try to catch a falling knife
Cliché’s are a wonderful memory device. If you knew and utilised scores of clichés throughout your life I am sure you would be good at lots things. Original thought is often not required, just RTFM (Read The Forking Manual).
If a share is falling let it fall. Many shares often have a 100% low to high in a year, so don’t try to catch that falling share, look to buy on a rebound.
Take Telstra for example. It has fallen from over 5.25 to 4.26, but is that cheap, will the market take Telstra even lower. If only investing a little then because of commission you will only have one shot at the price so it is more important to wait for signs of support; like good levels of buying. You dno’t want to plunge in too early with your precious investment capital to cut yourself on that investing knife. Mixing my metaphor, let the knife hit the floor and then pick some shares up.
If you have more capital then you should try to buy in three lots, ie split your money over three buys, to average in a price. This reduces stress on trades, as if you guess to early first up, you are only 1/3 in the trade, if share quickly rebounds you have some money in and can add the rest and so on.
Monday, July 11, 2005
Making money
Making money is easy.
A teenager can do it, or at least make a start.
So if it is that easy why aren't you doing it. Why can't you do it? Are you lazy, sub-normal, disadvantaged, content, too busy, just not your think?
Making money is so easy you can do it while you sleep, you can do it with other people's money. While you sleep I say, are you too lazy for that?
The easiest laziest way to make money is to embrace time. Like a good garden and scores of other things, making money takes time, day to day time and the span of time over years.
If you buy a lotto ticket, then you want more money and yet you are giving money away every time. So the effect is you are getting further away from what you want, by paying for a tiny piece of paper, 'cos that is all you are really ever going to get by playing the lotto. Save that money and all the other money you are wasting, get some money management knowledge by reading or asking and you will be rich in 15 years time, 20 if you are starting from under water.
Money is nothing, but the time it buys is everything. Time is life.
A teenager can do it, or at least make a start.
So if it is that easy why aren't you doing it. Why can't you do it? Are you lazy, sub-normal, disadvantaged, content, too busy, just not your think?
Making money is so easy you can do it while you sleep, you can do it with other people's money. While you sleep I say, are you too lazy for that?
The easiest laziest way to make money is to embrace time. Like a good garden and scores of other things, making money takes time, day to day time and the span of time over years.
If you buy a lotto ticket, then you want more money and yet you are giving money away every time. So the effect is you are getting further away from what you want, by paying for a tiny piece of paper, 'cos that is all you are really ever going to get by playing the lotto. Save that money and all the other money you are wasting, get some money management knowledge by reading or asking and you will be rich in 15 years time, 20 if you are starting from under water.
Money is nothing, but the time it buys is everything. Time is life.
Monday, May 09, 2005
21st Century Alert
But here's the rub: to reverse the trend, prices have to recapture 3 full bricks. That hasn't happened yet on this bounce, but if the SPX moves over 1184 on a closing basis -- intraday doesn't count -- then this chart will form a giant upside white brick. Such big reversals are very important, as they indicate follow-through is coming.
That means a daily close over 1184 on the SPX would likely see prices accelerate to the upside, most likely to 1203 in short order. It would also indicate that the last leg of this cyclical bull market is underway, and higher highs above 1230 by the early summer are squarely in the picture.
Sunday, May 01, 2005
How low can we go
| S&P ASX 200 | ^AXJO | 29 Apr | 3,983.200 | -28.400 | -0.71% |
lower she goes, but it is not a time to be aggressive in the market, it is time to wait and assess.
Sunday, April 17, 2005
Tobin Smith -- WaveWire -- Volume 6, Issue 15 (4/13/2005)
"Ladies and gents, you are only as "rich" as you feel.
And without a bulletproof foundation of income and high-dividend-paying equities, you will never feel rich."
Man that guy spews marketing material faster than...but he does have some good takeaway sweet and sour nuggets, education for your financial wellbeing.
And without a bulletproof foundation of income and high-dividend-paying equities, you will never feel rich."
Man that guy spews marketing material faster than...but he does have some good takeaway sweet and sour nuggets, education for your financial wellbeing.
Keep This On The Fridge
By Marcus Padley
April 16, 2005
What a life. Pushing electrons around a TV screen. But that's what analysts do. And while we sit in plasterboard boxes in glass towers, outside the world is going on. No amount of electron-shoving would have let you know that in June 2003 "China" was about to happen, that BHP profit forecasts were 100 per cent too low, the price was too low and the return on equity of BHP's Yabulu nickel operation was, in fact, irrelevant. Investing is not about analysing the trees; it's about predicting where the wood is off to, and in Australia, the wood is on the move.
The sharemarket is suddenly falling, not rising. The Reserve Bank has hinted the economy may be slowing, not growing. These are big changes. Falling market. Slowing growth. It means:
· Lock in profits in things that have gone up a lot.
· Sell small trading stocks.
· Sell volatile sectors.
· Sell cyclical sectors.
· Rotate into defensive sectors.
· Rotate into low-risk income stocks.
· Stop giving concept stock the benefit of the doubt.
Sectors to sell include stocks that have risen a lot, are exposed to the economic cycle, have high price-earnings multiples and low yields, priced on hope and glory instead of a boring story:
· Discretionary stocks: Retailers mostly, selling items you don't need.
· Media: Advertising is the first expense to be cut.
· Leisure: People cut back on travel/hotels.
· Builders: House prices drop and builders suffer.
· Transport: At the pointy end of the economic cycle, people ship less goods around.
· Stockmarket-exposed stocks: Obvious - stockmarket falls, stockmarket stocks fall.
· IT: Another expense to be cut in tough times.
· Resources: Exposed to metal prices that are driven by global economic growth.
· Chemicals: Dictated by commodity prices.
· Paper: Paper and pulp prices dictate.
· Biotechs: Priced on irrational exuberance.
On the flip side are defensive stocks, with predictable earnings, steady dividends, monopolies, captive client bases, low P/Es and high yields:
· Food: Everyone's got to eat.
· Booze: Drinking habits are not that cyclical.
· Health care: Everyone still needs it.
· Property trusts: Rents are fixed on long-term contracts, high yields.
· Gambling: Gamblers gamble regardless.
· Utilities: Tend to be priced on valuation and yield. Monopoly customer bases.
· Energy: Like utilities, fairly certain cash flows thanks to monopoly nature of customer bases.
· Banks: Priced on yield, P/E discount to market.
· Telecoms: Theoretically cyclical, though Telstra is pretty defensive at the moment.
· Rural stocks: Priced on drought.
· Oil stocks: Priced on the oil price.
What does this mean to us? Affirms Telstra as a god choice and banks may be worth looking at again.
April 16, 2005
What a life. Pushing electrons around a TV screen. But that's what analysts do. And while we sit in plasterboard boxes in glass towers, outside the world is going on. No amount of electron-shoving would have let you know that in June 2003 "China" was about to happen, that BHP profit forecasts were 100 per cent too low, the price was too low and the return on equity of BHP's Yabulu nickel operation was, in fact, irrelevant. Investing is not about analysing the trees; it's about predicting where the wood is off to, and in Australia, the wood is on the move.
The sharemarket is suddenly falling, not rising. The Reserve Bank has hinted the economy may be slowing, not growing. These are big changes. Falling market. Slowing growth. It means:
· Lock in profits in things that have gone up a lot.
· Sell small trading stocks.
· Sell volatile sectors.
· Sell cyclical sectors.
· Rotate into defensive sectors.
· Rotate into low-risk income stocks.
· Stop giving concept stock the benefit of the doubt.
Sectors to sell include stocks that have risen a lot, are exposed to the economic cycle, have high price-earnings multiples and low yields, priced on hope and glory instead of a boring story:
· Discretionary stocks: Retailers mostly, selling items you don't need.
· Media: Advertising is the first expense to be cut.
· Leisure: People cut back on travel/hotels.
· Builders: House prices drop and builders suffer.
· Transport: At the pointy end of the economic cycle, people ship less goods around.
· Stockmarket-exposed stocks: Obvious - stockmarket falls, stockmarket stocks fall.
· IT: Another expense to be cut in tough times.
· Resources: Exposed to metal prices that are driven by global economic growth.
· Chemicals: Dictated by commodity prices.
· Paper: Paper and pulp prices dictate.
· Biotechs: Priced on irrational exuberance.
On the flip side are defensive stocks, with predictable earnings, steady dividends, monopolies, captive client bases, low P/Es and high yields:
· Food: Everyone's got to eat.
· Booze: Drinking habits are not that cyclical.
· Health care: Everyone still needs it.
· Property trusts: Rents are fixed on long-term contracts, high yields.
· Gambling: Gamblers gamble regardless.
· Utilities: Tend to be priced on valuation and yield. Monopoly customer bases.
· Energy: Like utilities, fairly certain cash flows thanks to monopoly nature of customer bases.
· Banks: Priced on yield, P/E discount to market.
· Telecoms: Theoretically cyclical, though Telstra is pretty defensive at the moment.
· Rural stocks: Priced on drought.
· Oil stocks: Priced on the oil price.
What does this mean to us? Affirms Telstra as a god choice and banks may be worth looking at again.
Friday, April 15, 2005
Is there fear out there
The fear is rising in the US. Here with the ASX200 at
down from 4266.9 or 6.3% drop
15 days below the 50 day MA
this could be good for a drop down to the 200 day MA which is still rising. Is destiny 3875?
At this point only those who have entered market in last four months are under water.
Westfield 15.99
Telstra 5.04
| 4:07pm | 4,014.300 | -68.000 | -1.67% |
15 days below the 50 day MA
this could be good for a drop down to the 200 day MA which is still rising. Is destiny 3875?
At this point only those who have entered market in last four months are under water.
Westfield 15.99
Telstra 5.04
Thursday, April 14, 2005
Candlesticks rule and Telstra
ASX200
Back down near the intra day low from a couple weeks back and the lowest closing in almost three months. Intra day is why you must use candlesticks instead of simple line graphs. Line only conveys one piece of information while candlesticks convey four; low high open close.
Hopefully this will bring some fear in to the Aus market, as we are looking to buy.
Telstra firms as the worst comments I have found aren't too bad, Income Investors view is real income has only marginally increased over the last five years. That is true, but it is at least stable has a good dividend and in unlikely to be as effected in a big down turn, compared to banks and shopping centre owners.
| 4,082.300 | -52.700 | -1.27% |
Hopefully this will bring some fear in to the Aus market, as we are looking to buy.
Telstra firms as the worst comments I have found aren't too bad, Income Investors view is real income has only marginally increased over the last five years. That is true, but it is at least stable has a good dividend and in unlikely to be as effected in a big down turn, compared to banks and shopping centre owners.
Monday, April 11, 2005
ASX Outlook from Dale Gillham 11 Apr 05
When the market confirms the low, you will find many stocks present buy signals, so right now I suggest you use the next few weeks to study the market to find which will be the best to buy. That said, given that the next rise is highly unlikely to go beyond 14 months, I recommend you be more conservative if you leverage your investments. It is generally during the last stages of a bull market when many people get caught out and end up losing money.
http://www.wealthwithin.com.au/pages/default.cfm?page_id=17472
The trustees agree with this outlook and will look to position themselves for gains over the coming months. Concentrated on shares with the greates potential and least risk. Current thoughts have not changed, Opis Fund, Telstra, ANZ, WDC and NAB are on our watchlist. Telstra May 4.94 Puts are looking very attractive, as the trustees would be happy purchasing shares under 5.00.
http://www.wealthwithin.com.au/pages/default.cfm?page_id=17472
The trustees agree with this outlook and will look to position themselves for gains over the coming months. Concentrated on shares with the greates potential and least risk. Current thoughts have not changed, Opis Fund, Telstra, ANZ, WDC and NAB are on our watchlist. Telstra May 4.94 Puts are looking very attractive, as the trustees would be happy purchasing shares under 5.00.
Why do things go wrong when you tell?
The very first book I read on options was the ten biggest mistakes an options trader could make. I forgot which number it was but telling anyone about an active trade was a big called mistake. Here, once again is an example. I have had lots of profitable trades in the last month, but the one I wrote about has turned in to a loser. BWNG covered call. Still at least it is only a small loser and if I take the risk of not covering my call when I sell the BWNG shares tonight then at I will come out even. Though that would leave me naked short on BWNG for four months. Umm might be worth the risk, but if a buyout came the price would shoot up and I could lose even more than the $340 that I should close out for tonight.
The upside takeaway from this is if I had gone long the shares at the original $5.15 I would be down $1270. SO once again the options strategy comes out ahead.
Also, by using turtle approach of cash management and only taking a part stake to begin with I limited the loss the on this position.
The upside takeaway from this is if I had gone long the shares at the original $5.15 I would be down $1270. SO once again the options strategy comes out ahead.
Also, by using turtle approach of cash management and only taking a part stake to begin with I limited the loss the on this position.
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
Investment Clock
The Investment Clock is a great long term investment guideline. Where are we on the investment clock today? Interest rates rising,, share markets peaked, housing peaked, commodity prices peaking. Looks like it is getting close to 2 o'clock.
What to expect.
Rising rates, falling shares, falling commodity prices. Get ready for a downturn in the world economy and cashed up to profit during the next upturn.
Dog Bowl Super Fund is steering clear of economically sensitive stocks like the banks and Westfield, though may look to pick up some utility style stock like Telstra. The Fund will remain heavily in cash waiting for better long term buying opportunities ahead.
What to expect.
Rising rates, falling shares, falling commodity prices. Get ready for a downturn in the world economy and cashed up to profit during the next upturn.
Dog Bowl Super Fund is steering clear of economically sensitive stocks like the banks and Westfield, though may look to pick up some utility style stock like Telstra. The Fund will remain heavily in cash waiting for better long term buying opportunities ahead.
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
CTIC Covered Call
A buy and will decide between this and Covered Call on BWNG, see below.
If Called returns 50% over 50 days, 361% annual return.
Share CTIC
Price 3.68
Call .cucea 0.35 20 May
Initial Size 10
Stop Set at 2.5 reduces risk to 830
Does this look to good to be true? Well it relies on a large gain by CTIC, but advisors reckon it could run up in lead up to meeting.
If Called returns 50% over 50 days, 361% annual return.
Share CTIC
Price 3.68
Call .cucea 0.35 20 May
Initial Size 10
Stop Set at 2.5 reduces risk to 830
Does this look to good to be true? Well it relies on a large gain by CTIC, but advisors reckon it could run up in lead up to meeting.
Update on BWNG Covered Call
http://dogbowlfunds.blogspot.com/2005/03/bwng-covered-call.html
Position currently is neutral zone down 140. Believe this to be close to bottom in short term market, thus expect this position to show clean heals soon
Currently a buy and will decide between this and Covered Call on CTIC, see above.
If Called returns 36% (up 4) over 139 days, 93% (up 19) annual return.
Share BWNG 4.23
Call .QBGHA 0.55 19-Aug
Inital Size 10
Profit potential 1,320
Maximum Portfolio Risk 1%
Stop Set at 3 reduces risk to 680 or .20% portfolio risk
Old Comment Position Sizing If moves positive re-examine and look to buy 10 more. Maximum allowed 3000 shares.
New Comment This is even more attractive now, lower risk higher profit over less time.
Position currently is neutral zone down 140. Believe this to be close to bottom in short term market, thus expect this position to show clean heals soon
Currently a buy and will decide between this and Covered Call on CTIC, see above.
If Called returns 36% (up 4) over 139 days, 93% (up 19) annual return.
Share BWNG 4.23
Call .QBGHA 0.55 19-Aug
Inital Size 10
Profit potential 1,320
Maximum Portfolio Risk 1%
Stop Set at 3 reduces risk to 680 or .20% portfolio risk
Old Comment Position Sizing If moves positive re-examine and look to buy 10 more. Maximum allowed 3000 shares.
New Comment This is even more attractive now, lower risk higher profit over less time.
Monday, March 28, 2005
Still Heading Down
Back on March 16 with ASX200 on 4217 I said it was going lower and both the trust and super fund have held off buying Australian equities.
Check out today 29 March
Represents a 3% decline in under two weeks.
ASX200 has now passed through its 50 day MA, which was at 4155.
This is the first breach of 50 day in eight months.
Check out today 29 March
| S&P ASX 200 | ^AXJO | 4:07pm | 4,095.600 | -40.900 | -0.99% |
ASX200 has now passed through its 50 day MA, which was at 4155.
This is the first breach of 50 day in eight months.
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
Australian Market Place .AX
As you can check in this link Australian All Ords Australian shares are in a firm and mature uptrend. The 50 day MA has been above 200 day for about 18 months now and the index has rallied out 40%, with dividends it would have returned close to 50% over that time.
Sometime this year the 50 day will drop below the 200 with the market dropping.
With the 200 day at 3800 and 50 day at 4130 and both rising to the market at 4217 the cross back should be at the 3900 area with a pull back below that. The size of the pull back will depend on Australian and global market conditions, it will either be a consolidation or a correction.
Therefore, why invest now? Unless you think you can out fox the market or have a fund so good that over time any entry point will be a significant winner.
Sometime this year the 50 day will drop below the 200 with the market dropping.
With the 200 day at 3800 and 50 day at 4130 and both rising to the market at 4217 the cross back should be at the 3900 area with a pull back below that. The size of the pull back will depend on Australian and global market conditions, it will either be a consolidation or a correction.
Therefore, why invest now? Unless you think you can out fox the market or have a fund so good that over time any entry point will be a significant winner.
BWNG Covered Call
If Called returns 32% over 155 days, 74% annual return.
Downside breakeven at 3.8 requires 35% share price drop.
Michael Murphy very positive on BWNG, may even buy call if can get for less than current 1.35.
Share BWNG 5.15
Call .QBGHA 1.35 19-Aug
Inital Size 10
Profit potential 1,200
Return 31.58%
Outlay 3,800
No. Days 155
Annual Return 74.30%
Maximum Portfolio Risk 1%
Stop Set at 3 reduces risk to 800 or .22% portfolio risk
Position Sizing If moves positve re-examine and look to buy 10 more. Maximum allowed 3000 shares.
Downside breakeven at 3.8 requires 35% share price drop.
Michael Murphy very positive on BWNG, may even buy call if can get for less than current 1.35.
Share BWNG 5.15
Call .QBGHA 1.35 19-Aug
Inital Size 10
Profit potential 1,200
Return 31.58%
Outlay 3,800
No. Days 155
Annual Return 74.30%
Maximum Portfolio Risk 1%
Stop Set at 3 reduces risk to 800 or .22% portfolio risk
Position Sizing If moves positve re-examine and look to buy 10 more. Maximum allowed 3000 shares.
Monday, March 14, 2005
Investment Strategy
Here at Dog Bowl Funds our investment strategy is simple, make our money grow safely by trying to be in the right place at the right time and more importantly avoiding both being in the wrong place at the wrong time and the right place at the wrong time.
Australian and internation shares, managed funds and high earning cash accounts will be utilised.
Today we are 100% cash while formulating our strategy for a peaking stock market. Cash earns 5.25 which they say after 15% super tax is 4.46, but I know we will get a 100% franked dividend before the end of the tax year, which will offset tax on interest.
Cash is King today, with small puts and Opis Funds on the menu.
Australian and internation shares, managed funds and high earning cash accounts will be utilised.
Today we are 100% cash while formulating our strategy for a peaking stock market. Cash earns 5.25 which they say after 15% super tax is 4.46, but I know we will get a 100% franked dividend before the end of the tax year, which will offset tax on interest.
Cash is King today, with small puts and Opis Funds on the menu.
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