Posted by Bakuv http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=23934359&recscode=2
Ok, since I can be dense sometimes, mind if I restate the trading range methodology using USANA as an example?
1) Record the ttm EPS for the 3Q: $1.90
2) Record the low and high trading prices following the release of 3Q results until the 4Q results are released: $37.30 and $47.36
3) Establish PE range for the trading range following the known EPS: 19.63 (=37.20/1.90) to 24.92 (=47.36/1.90)
4) Record the ttm EPS for the 4Q: $1.98
5) Apply previous PE range from step 3 to just released 4Q ttm EPS of 1.98 to get new trading range until next quarter's results are announced: 38.87 (=19.63*1.98) to $49.34 (=24.92*1.98) (btw, I came up with a different low end of the trading range, 38.87 instead of 38.26)
6) Can throw out extreme low and high prices based on common sense and use prices that are more realistic
7) Record events that cause price fluctuation in order to "price" news.
8) Rinse and repeat each quarter
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
CTRP fears
Orignally posted on CTRP board at Fool SA. http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=23931220
Just came here on the trail of nikita02445 who had a board created, named and posted to by her.
"PS - I know this is probably a stupid question, but when is there first quarter?"
First quarter is generally Jan-Mar each year, with lots of exceptions. Individual companies can have first quarter when ever they want, so some might be giving their third quarter numbers during the first quarter!! Some countries have different first quarters where companies must align with Fedral tax laws, exceptions are such a drag, why can't we just have rules!! Did you know that some things that many Americans think of as the rule or the norm is from a global perspective the exception. Metrics rule. Just think how hard all this stock investing would be if it was still in fractions!!
Great post on pandemic nikita. TysonL any chance of paragraph or two summing up False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear.? My partner is a Biotech project manager and is doing a Masters in Drug Development. She is the least easily influenced person I know and has an excellent mind. As she doesn't have any vested interest, her opinion is valuable to me. Almost everyone that has a loud voice in a massive topic like pandemics have vested interests, they are on one side.
Her view is, there will be lots of warning sign of the pandemic coming; first the virus needs to mutate to allow consistent human to human transmission. When that mutation happens you will still have a lot of time to prepare. Gee I must really pin her down on what a lot of time is, words like “a lot” are so meaningless due to their subjectivity. Avian flu is being so closely monitored that we will see the signs early. A pandemic will happen sometime.
My view is that it can't hurt to have some extra toilet paper, canned and dry goods lying around and hopefully you have a veggie garden, maybe some solar power, some water tanks (essential in Australia) a holiday home in some remote location, bottled gas and bbq, lots of guns (joking, though it really scares me that depending on the source somewhere around 32-39% of households contain at least one firearm), a stash of gold coins and many other things. It can't hurt unless you put all of that on credit card. Hopefully y'all know you shouldn't get in bad debt (debt that costs you), even if that's what your leaders consistently do.
I once read that at it's peak 50,000 people died a year on American roads. Imagine if the government and vested interest groups pushed that information as propaganda to create fear amongst motorists. Would you be more afraid to drive?
I also read that human's perception is strongly influence by recent events; we haven't had an epidemic since Spain hence we think it is unlikely to happen.
The evil pharmaceutical companies (I'm joking, my partner hates that phrase. Why is an entire industry so maligned 'cos a few bad practices amongst a few companies?)and there are several, Tamiflu is but one, will pump like never before.
Tired, should be sleeping eating anything but this. Hope that made some sense. I say act quickly when the signs are there, but do not live you life in fear. This is America's time, your window is closing, you can have a beautiful renaissance, you can make the coming century one to be rejoiced like the Italian Renaissance of the 15th century. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Renaissance
Nikita, if you are still reading, your board on Gems is making a lot of people happy. I am one of them. If you have indeed left the hidden gems fold I hope they have arranged for you to at least read your board, or better have listened to your request for deeply discounted third, fourth etc subscriptions.
Nikita I am sure you know this, but did everyone already see this irony? http://www.ctrp.org/
PPS I am a paranoid guy who talks and writes as a way to think, so any view that I ever express is often not my strongest view, hope my off-track comments don't offend anyone, well really I hope that the level of fear in your country hasn't progressed so far that anyone could view this with a devil's light. I don't even know what a devil's light is.
Dean
Just came here on the trail of nikita02445 who had a board created, named and posted to by her.
"PS - I know this is probably a stupid question, but when is there first quarter?"
First quarter is generally Jan-Mar each year, with lots of exceptions. Individual companies can have first quarter when ever they want, so some might be giving their third quarter numbers during the first quarter!! Some countries have different first quarters where companies must align with Fedral tax laws, exceptions are such a drag, why can't we just have rules!! Did you know that some things that many Americans think of as the rule or the norm is from a global perspective the exception. Metrics rule. Just think how hard all this stock investing would be if it was still in fractions!!
Great post on pandemic nikita. TysonL any chance of paragraph or two summing up False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear.? My partner is a Biotech project manager and is doing a Masters in Drug Development. She is the least easily influenced person I know and has an excellent mind. As she doesn't have any vested interest, her opinion is valuable to me. Almost everyone that has a loud voice in a massive topic like pandemics have vested interests, they are on one side.
Her view is, there will be lots of warning sign of the pandemic coming; first the virus needs to mutate to allow consistent human to human transmission. When that mutation happens you will still have a lot of time to prepare. Gee I must really pin her down on what a lot of time is, words like “a lot” are so meaningless due to their subjectivity. Avian flu is being so closely monitored that we will see the signs early. A pandemic will happen sometime.
My view is that it can't hurt to have some extra toilet paper, canned and dry goods lying around and hopefully you have a veggie garden, maybe some solar power, some water tanks (essential in Australia) a holiday home in some remote location, bottled gas and bbq, lots of guns (joking, though it really scares me that depending on the source somewhere around 32-39% of households contain at least one firearm), a stash of gold coins and many other things. It can't hurt unless you put all of that on credit card. Hopefully y'all know you shouldn't get in bad debt (debt that costs you), even if that's what your leaders consistently do.
I once read that at it's peak 50,000 people died a year on American roads. Imagine if the government and vested interest groups pushed that information as propaganda to create fear amongst motorists. Would you be more afraid to drive?
I also read that human's perception is strongly influence by recent events; we haven't had an epidemic since Spain hence we think it is unlikely to happen.
The evil pharmaceutical companies (I'm joking, my partner hates that phrase. Why is an entire industry so maligned 'cos a few bad practices amongst a few companies?)and there are several, Tamiflu is but one, will pump like never before.
Tired, should be sleeping eating anything but this. Hope that made some sense. I say act quickly when the signs are there, but do not live you life in fear. This is America's time, your window is closing, you can have a beautiful renaissance, you can make the coming century one to be rejoiced like the Italian Renaissance of the 15th century. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Renaissance
Nikita, if you are still reading, your board on Gems is making a lot of people happy. I am one of them. If you have indeed left the hidden gems fold I hope they have arranged for you to at least read your board, or better have listened to your request for deeply discounted third, fourth etc subscriptions.
Nikita I am sure you know this, but did everyone already see this irony? http://www.ctrp.org/
PPS I am a paranoid guy who talks and writes as a way to think, so any view that I ever express is often not my strongest view, hope my off-track comments don't offend anyone, well really I hope that the level of fear in your country hasn't progressed so far that anyone could view this with a devil's light. I don't even know what a devil's light is.
Dean
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