Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Figuring out trading range

Posted by Bakuv http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=23934359&recscode=2

Ok, since I can be dense sometimes, mind if I restate the trading range methodology using USANA as an example?

1) Record the ttm EPS for the 3Q: $1.90
2) Record the low and high trading prices following the release of 3Q results until the 4Q results are released: $37.30 and $47.36
3) Establish PE range for the trading range following the known EPS: 19.63 (=37.20/1.90) to 24.92 (=47.36/1.90)
4) Record the ttm EPS for the 4Q: $1.98
5) Apply previous PE range from step 3 to just released 4Q ttm EPS of 1.98 to get new trading range until next quarter's results are announced: 38.87 (=19.63*1.98) to $49.34 (=24.92*1.98) (btw, I came up with a different low end of the trading range, 38.87 instead of 38.26)
6) Can throw out extreme low and high prices based on common sense and use prices that are more realistic
7) Record events that cause price fluctuation in order to "price" news.
8) Rinse and repeat each quarter

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